The Big Search Quesions for 2007
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Written By Kate Zimmermann | December 20, 2006 | Share This
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Google Competition
Does Google really have 70% market share? According to Rich Skrenta they do, and according to Internet Outsider, that’s damn scary. As Google continues to refine its service offerings and expand into new search territory, Industry analysts are increasingly wondering why the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place engines are falling so pitifully behind. Searchviews took a look at what other analysts have proposed for 2007, and compiled a summary of what could happen. Most of these are based on multiple complex factors and are wildly speculative… but… What if?
What If Ask Was A “Swing State”?
Intro: Originally proposed by David Kirkpatrick, some analysts think that Yahoo could “catch” Google if it bands together with other engines - most notably, Microsoft. In that scenario, Ask.com becomes the “swing” engine that would either make or help Yahoo break Google.
The Scenario: Microsoft and Yahoo merge, but still hold only 30% market share against Google’s 60%. Though Ask accounts for only 2% of its traffic, the IAC’s assets plus traffic funneled from Lycos and Infospace gives Ask control over the remaining 10% of the search market.
The Crucial Move: Ask.com signs with Yahoo/MSN
The Result: Yahoo/MSN close the gap on Google
The Big Question: Is a Microsoft/Yahoo merger really ever going to happen?
What If Microsoft Moved Everything Online?
Intro: Microsoft isn’t going to win the search market by persuading people over to live.com - or any homepage that isn’t google. But, they’ve got a wealth of existing assets offline that are a) easily integrated with search, and b) already have an enormous user base. So, imagine that…
The Scenario: Microsoft integrates the new Live.com with their other assets.
The Crucial Move: All assets are leveraged together: Office 2007, Vista, XBOX go fully online so that they’re sharable, searchable, integrated with live.com and accessible through any internet connection.
The Result: Microsoft becomes synonymous with enterprise content management, completes the migration of gaming from the client-side to the cloud. Integrated assets + Deep pockets = search winner in all areas off the live.com homepage.
The Big Question: Search is about simplicity - Can Microsoft make it all simple enough to use?
What If Yahoo Made A Comeback?
Intro: As the definitive #2 engine, Yahoo has a lot “up and coming” that could tip market share back in its favor. In contrast with the other runners up, Yahoo doesn’t have to fight for users - they just need a way to properly monetize existing search assets.
The Scenario: Panama is finally out in full, Yahoo re-org tightens operations and consolidates assets, monetizes qualified traffic by paying attention to behavioral data.
The Crucial Move: YHOO sees the black, encourages long awaited surge of investors.
The Result: Yahoo dominates Local/Social/Vertical search traffic.
The Big Question: Can Yahoo make their advertising products attractive enough to lure distribution clients away from Google?
What If Baidu Entered the Market?
Intro: None of the engines, Google included, has yet tackled mobile search in the US (at least, not with a compelling enough offer to lead its mainstream adoption). Could mobile search be an Asian import?
The Scenario: Baidu enters US Search market with unbeatable mobile search technology that has been groomed in Asian market for 3+ years.
The Crucial Move: Baidu signs with at least 2 major US carriers (Verizon and Cingular?), makes mobile web access affordable with ad revenue subsidies.
The Result: Baidu creates mobile search & mobile commerce empire
The Big Question: Is the US market ready, from either a technology or consumer-knowledge standpoint, to widely adopt the mobile internet?
Intro: Google shows no signs of curbing expansion, and history shows that Google keeps on growing even when we all think it’s capped. So, let’s say…
The Scenario: Google continues to move into new markets (think: Google checkout, Google Phone), perfect services in emerging markets (Video, Maps etc), and attract more of the search market.
The Crucial Move: Google successfully takes auction model to offline markets (already started with Google Radio).
The Result: Google = Advertising
The Big Question: Google is good at search, has built billions on search and has extended to every corner of the internet…. can they figure out how to make a profit on anything other than search?
If you have thoughts on the plausibility (or implausibility) of any of these scenarios - or something entirely new - we’d love to hear your opinion.
Topics: Advertising: Online, Featured Item, Google, Media Convergence, SEM: Ad Creative, SEM: Paid Search, Search: Innovations, Search: Local, Search: News, Technology, Yahoo! |