2007 Search Industry Breakdown
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Written By Kate Zimmermann | January 3, 2007 | Share This
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Another year, another set of predictions. So, Search is turning 13 this year - is that why the market is looking more and more like a middle school dance? Google is the “cool” kid, Microsoft keeps trying to pick an outfit, Yahoo is having a breakdown in the bathroom and everyone wants to make best friends with the 2.0 kids. Based on the multitude of blogger opinions, polls and our internal Reprise Media survey, here are our predictions for the search engines in 2007:
Google
Digital video and online TV are this year’s hot ticket items. Given that Google basically owns user-generated video via YouTube, they’re in a good position to keep growing. Not only that, but Google’s already testing ways to monetize new media by applying their auction system to radio and video ads. Apart from video assets, Searchviews predicts: Checkout is the new PayPal, Docs and Spreadsheets are the future OS (this might not happen until late ‘07/2008), and Feedburner should be Google’s new best friend.
Microsoft
Dear Microsoft/MSN/Live.com, PICK A BRAND already. Live.com won’t significantly increase traffic for MSN, but like we said before, at least it looks pretty. Vista won’t make an impression until late 2007/2008, but when it does, it could give Microsoft an edge on user-generated rich media. Searchviews predicts: Live Image Search will pick up a big name image search engine with 3-D facial recognition tech, Microsoft will take Office further online to compete with Docs and Spreadsheets, and as MSN recongizes that they have a better opportunity monetizing their own assets across Vista/Live properties, they will NOT become a major player in contextual advertising.
Yahoo
How many Yahoo employees does it take to screw in a light bulb? evidently two - one to stick his finger in the socket and one to call the Wall Street Journal. But at least Yahoo seems more on track with their re-org under public scrutiny. Searchviews predicts: Panama, though not a world-changing improvement, will improve Yahoo’s revenue per click, and offer enough stability to allow them to focus on innovation. In ‘07 Yahoo! may finally figure out how to get more out of their lucrative social media and “lifestyle” assets… that is, if they get their re-org together.
Etc
We have only two things to say to the remaining small% of the search market - don’t expect to compete with Google and Yahoo, but find your niche - either as a general 2nd tier or a vertical engine. Searchviews predicts: MSN will pick up one of the 2nd tiers, AOL will pick someone to buy them out, “Wikiasari” will attract approximatelyyy… 15 minutes of press.
Overall, we think 2007 will be characterized by the pervasive role of search across all types of media. Without further digression, Searchviews would like to summarize our thoughts on the…
Top Five Trends for 2007
- Ad Revenue Sharing Will Subsidize Everything: Cheap mobile service, long distance, online television, P2P sharing of copyrighted content, etc.
- Social Networking will cease being referred to as “new media” and will become just another standard element of “media”.
- Quality-Based Metrics will emerge as Page Views become less relevant. New metrics will capture stuff like, length of time spent on page, and other indicators of the “quality” (aka: “engagement”) of the conversion. The newly launched Turn.com is an example of a CPA (cost-per-action) network that is attempting to bridge the disparity between old and new media advertising.
- Geo-Behavioral Targeting: Social/Local user search data + GPS tracking = v. powerful ad targeting for mobile - though marketers will have to figure out how to create mobile ads that don’t invade the user’s sense of privacy.
- Internet Becomes Preferred Source of News: As newspapers move increasingly online, publishers will look for new ways to differentiate online to offline story coverage. Online coverage will be more up-to-date, though with less editing and faster turnover, whereas offline news will encompass a more analytic voice, incorporating reader feedback (that was perhaps, generated online). The recent Washington Post re-org is one example of a major publishers recognizing the Internet as the preferred source of news.
Topics: Advertising: Behavioral, Advertising: Distribution, Advertising: Online, Google, Media Convergence, Microsoft, Publishing, RSS, SEM: Paid Search, Search: Innovations, Social Media, Yahoo! |
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