Forrester Prediction: Paid Video Downloads are Dead
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Written By Kate Zimmermann | May 15, 2007 | Share This
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ATTENTION iTUNES - Your market is a dead end! According to a new study from Forrester, paid video downloads will peak in 2007 at $279 million revenue. From here on out, Forrester believes that demand for online video will increasingly favor free, ad supported models. Says Forrester Research Principal Analyst James McQuivey,
“The paid video download market in its current evolutionary state will soon become extinct, despite the fast growth and the millions being spent today. Television and cable networks will shift the bulk of paid downloading to ad-supported streams where they have control of ads and effective audience measurement. The movie studios, whose content only makes up a fraction of today’s paid downloads, will put their weight behind subscription models that imitate premium cable channel services.”
The study goes on to make a number of other provocative implications:
- Apple will have to rethink Apple TV, shifting it from a closed pay-per-view system to an ad-supported, broadband service provider model that puts YouTube videos as well as ABC.com TV shows directly on the TV.
- Television networks will allow ad-supported downlaods of prime-time TV shows
- Satellite and telco service providers will partner with paid video download pioneers to provide video-on-demand content.
- By 2008, more people will be streaming ad-supported TV shows than using DVR
Forrester’s ominous predictions bring to mind some other recent news:
- Joost Attracts More Content Partners, Gets Closer to Public Launch
- Early Apple TV Sales Sluggish
- ABC.com: Streaming Video a Big Success
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