2008 Searchviews Predictions
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Written By Sepideh Saremi | December 21, 2007 | Share This
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In yesterday’s post, we outlined what happened in search and social media in 2007, and why it mattered. Today we’re looking to the year ahead, and making some industry predictions for 2008.
Topline? Searchviews predicts that 2008 will be the year that:
- The concept of paying for online content ceases to exist
- “Open” platforms and a free social graph become more meaningful concepts - with implications for mobile and government
- Mobile Internet will have a big impact on content and its distribution
- Search gets truly social and smaller engines get a chance to shine
- Privacy becomes a much bigger concern
Here’s the breakdown:
The concept of paying for online content ceases to exist
- The success of the NYTimes’ dismantling of TimesSelect means Rupert Murdoch & Co. get smart and go free with the WSJ this year - and everyone else will have to follow suit.
- YouTube will stop getting sued and start signing huge video advertising deals.
- But: The music industry will continue to be heavy-handed and litigious rather than figure out how to effectively monetize music online – Notably, we predict that the music industry will go after the excellent Hype Machine, instead of recognizing how valuable it is as a promotional aggregator.
“Open” networks and a free social graph become actionable and meaningful concepts - with implications for mobile and government
- All new web services will be expected to have an open API.
- Remaining US wireless networks will open up, too. By the end of the year, we’ll hear some announcements of the industry shifting considerably to allow users to use any phone on any network.
- U.S. citizens will get better access to government records online.
- Government officials will start to adopt social networking/blogging as new point of communication with constituents. In other words, social networking and blogging won’t just be an election gimmick anymore, but a real point of communication between politicians and people (but, watch out - we also predict that at least one politician will suffer serious online backlash by ignoring search & social media best practices).
Mobile Internet will have a big impact on content and its distribution
- As mobile browsing/Internet access becomes more prevalent, microblog formats (Twitter, Tumblr, etc.) in aggregate will exceed Blogger in users.
- Content will get shorter.
- RSS adoption will start to hit the mainstream
- GPS capabilities (a la Google Mobile Maps) will be critical to mobile’s impact - especially for locally-focused social media sites.
Search gets truly social and smaller engines get a chance to shine
- Ask.com will pick up steam, and IAC will buy vertical engines to blow it out – watch out, Live.com!
- Yahoo’s Kickstart will fold and they will quit trying to build social networks from the ground up – they will finally figure out personalized Yahoo start pages have the beginnings of social network profiles and just let people link to each other that way.
- Similarly, Google will get its social network act together, leveraging iGoogle and Google Profiles to do it. Dare we hope for the end of Orkut?
- Myspace will lose ground to Facebook, becoming lost in the wind like Friendster. Or…
- Facebook will acquired outright by Google or Yahoo. Or…
- Facebook will make a really big mistake (compromising user privacy in an unforgivable way) and see a mass user-exodus.
- Veoh.com will gain heavy exposure for video sharing and become a competitor to YouTube.
- Facebook Beacon will get more sophisticated and start to monetize.
- Niche social networks will emerge as big players, and engines (specifically Yahoo) go on a spending spree. Niches to look out for: moms, pets, shopping, and healthcare.
Privacy becomes a much bigger concern
- Consolidation will occur in the people search space (e.g., ZoomInfo, LinkedIn, Spock, etc.).
- Pipl.com will freak people out.
- Companies will be expected to prioritize user fears/the illusion of privacy above the value of data they’re collecting.
More predictions for 2008? Add them to our comments below, or give us a shoutout on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/searchviews.
Topics: Advertising: Online, Search: Innovations, Search: Vertical, Social Media, Technology, Wireless & Mobile, Yahoo! |
This is great. Thanks for a terrific wrap up. Bravo.
Niche social networks have experienced huge growth this year and this field will continue to grow in 2008. Companies and brands will build their own social networks to engage and market to interested parties.
We’ve recently launched a search engine that helps users find niche interest social networks and helps social network owners promote them.
Users search for sites related to whatever their interest is and webmasters submit their sites tagged with related keywords.
The idea is that due to the increasing popularity and proliferation of niche subject social networking sites thanks to Ning, Pringo, OneSite et al, users have a way of finding like-minded communities and these social networks receive targeted traffic that helps build user base and monetize.
Please take a look! We’re still building the database. Feel free to register and submit your niche social network or social media site for free.
http://findasocialnetwork.com
“Facebook will make a really big mistake (compromising user privacy in an unforgivable way)”
I thought that the beacon was a really big mistake:
“…poorly implemented, privacy-invading Beacon ad program, which broadcast users’ off-Facebook activity in news feeds…”
My impression is that people are depressingly uninterested about privacy.
The last census in West Germany in 1987 was accompanied by calls for boycott from people who were concerned it would lead the way to a surveillance state. Now, those were the days!
Completely agree that consolidation will occur in the people search space. Many of the players are doing the same thing. After all, how many places to find people do we really need.
[…] that serves vertical engines so well. If they can pull in users from Google Local then another one of SearchViews predictions for 2008 will have come true: “Search gets truly social and smaller engines get a chance to shine.” […]